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      雙語:加倍努力滿足低收入國家的疫情后復蘇需要
      發布時間:2021年11月02日     發布人: nanyuzi
      來源: 國際貨幣基金組織
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      Stepping Up to Meet Low-Income Countries’ Pandemic Recovery Needs

      加倍努力滿足低收入國家的疫情后復蘇需要

       

      By Christian Mumssen and Seán Nolan

      克里斯蒂安·穆森 肖恩·諾蘭

       

      26 July 2021

      2021年7月26日

       

      Low-income countries have been hard hit by the pandemic. Their large financing needs are only likely to grow as they deal with the crisis and its economic aftermath. The IMF has approved a far-reaching package of support that would expand their access to financial assistance at zero-interest rates, while providing stronger safeguards against taking on debt they cannot handle. For these efforts to succeed, economically stronger member countries will have to play their part.

      新冠疫情對低收入國家造成了沉重打擊。這些國家的融資需求本就十分巨大,而在其應對當前危機及其經濟影響中,這些融資需求只會進一步增加。IMF已經批準了一攬子影響深遠的支持計劃,其將使低收入國家有能力以零利率獲得更多的資金支持;同時,其也將提供更有力的保障,防止低收入國家背負無法償還的債務。為確保這些舉措取得成功,經濟實力較強的成員國必須發揮應有的作用。

       

      A rapid, unprecedented response

      迅速出臺空前的應對措施

       

      The pandemic has dealt a severe blow to the economies of many low-income countries: output growth stopped or reversed, living standards declined, poverty increased, and a decade of solid progress is now threatened.

      疫情對許多低收入國家的經濟造成了沉重打擊:這些國家的產出增長陷于停滯甚至有所降低,生活水平下降,貧困率上升,其在過去十年中取得的堅實進展正面臨著威脅。

       

      The IMF responded with unprecedented speed and scale. Financial assistance to 50 low-income countries reached $13 billion in 2020 compared to an average of $2 billion a year pre-pandemic: a more than sixfold increase. It also provided $739 million in grant-based debt service relief to 29 of its poorest and most vulnerable members.

      IMF以空前的速度和規模做出了響應。2020年,IMF為50個低收入國家提供了130億美元的資金援助,這是疫情暴發前年均20億美元資金援助規模的六倍以上。IMF還以贈款形式,為29個最貧窮、脆弱的成員國提供了7.39億美元的債務減免。

       

      Three-quarters of the new lending came from the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) – the IMF’s vehicle for zero-interest loans to low-income countries. The lion’s share was in the form of emergency disbursements with limited conditionality focused on ensuring transparent use of the resources to address pandemic-related needs.

      四分之三的新增貸款來自“減貧和增長信托基金”(PRGT)——這是IMF向低收入國家提供零息貸款的工具。其中,最大的一部分貸款是附加有限條件的緊急撥付,這些條件側重于確保透明地使用資源,以滿足疫情的相關需要。

       

      As they entered the pandemic with limited financial means, IMF assistance was crucial for many low-income countries to support lives and livelihoods.

      很多低收入國家在疫情暴發時的財政空間有限,因此,IMF的援助對幫助它們挽救生命和支持生計至關重要。

       

      Far-reaching reform

      影響深遠的改革

       

      Looking ahead, low-income countries will continue to require exceptional levels of external financial support as they recover from the pandemic, and boost investment to build more resilient and inclusive economies.

      展望未來,低收入國家將繼續需要超常規水平的外部資金支持來幫助它們從疫情中復蘇,增加投資來建設更具韌性、更加包容的未來經濟。

       

      Against this backdrop, the IMF has approved a package of far-reaching reforms to the PRGT to allow it to better respond to the financing needs of low-income countries over the next few years. These include:

      在這一背景之下,IMF批準了一攬子針對PRGT的意義深遠的改革計劃,使之能更好滿足低收入國家未來幾年的融資需要。這些改革計劃包括:

       

      Increased access to concessional financing for all low-income countries. Limits on normal access to PRGT resources have been raised by 45 percent. Uncapped access to concessional financing for the poorest countries. Access to concessional financing will no longer be subject to maximum levels for poorer countries with strong economic programs that meet the criteria for obtaining above-normal access levels.

      增加所有低收入國家可獲得的融資額度。將各國獲取PRGT資源的正常額度上限提高了45%。為最貧窮國家提供無限制的優惠融資額度。較貧窮的國家如果正在實施有力的經濟規劃,且其有資格獲得高于正常額度的優惠融資,則這些國家的優惠融資額度將不設上限

       

      Retention of zero interest rates for all PRGT facilities. Interest rates on all PRGT loans, reviewed every two years, will be kept at zero until July 2023. Reinforced safeguards to protect low-income countries from over-indebtedness. High borrowing levels, even on concessional terms, can push countries into unsustainable debt positions; IMF program design will pay added attention to the debt levels of countries at risk. With a challenging road to recovery ahead, we project that demand for IMF support will remain elevated. Total IMF lending to low-income countries is projected to reach around $48 billion during the pandemic and its immediate aftermath. PRGT credit outstanding could peak at $32 billion in 2025-26 (chart, black line). However, there are significant uncertainties around the timing and strength of economic recovery, and the possible demand for Fund concessional support (blue shaded area).

      所有PRGT工具保持零利率。在2023年7月之前,所有PRGT貸款(其利率每兩年審查一次)都將保持零利率。加強保障措施,防止低收入國家過度負債。即使在優惠條件下,高債務水平也可能導致相關國家的債務陷入不可持續的狀況;IMF在設計規劃時將格外關注面臨風險國家的債務水平。鑒于復蘇之路充滿挑戰,我們預計對IMF援助的需求仍將保持在較高水平。我們預計,在疫情期間以及疫情后的較短時期內,IMF對低收入國家的貸款總額將達到480億美元左右。2025至2026年,PRGT的未償貸款規??赡苓_到320億美元的峰值(見圖中黑線)。不過,經濟復蘇的時點和強度,以及有關國家對IMF優惠貸款支持的潛在需求(藍色陰影區域),仍存在巨大的不確定性。

       

      But IMF loans will only meet a fraction of the external financing needs of low-income countries. Bilateral donors and multilateral development agencies must also step up to play their part, both through bilateral aid, and support for the IMF’s fund-raising efforts. Moreover, if low-income countries are to maintain sustainable levels of debt, much of that financing will have to come through grants and highly concessional lending.

      不過,IMF的貸款僅能滿足低收入國家的一小部分外部融資需求。雙邊捐助方和多邊開發機構也必須加倍努力,通過雙邊援助和支持IMF的籌資舉措,進一步發揮其各自作用。此外,如果低收入國家想要維持債務的可持續,很大一部分融資必須通過贈款和高度優惠的貸款來實現。

       

      A two-stage funding strategy

      兩階段融資戰略

       

      Alongside the greater access to financing, the IMF has also approved a two-stage funding strategy to cover the cost of pandemic-related lending, and ensure the financial sustainability of its concessional support. In the first stage, the Fund aims to mobilize a further $18 billion in PRGT loan resources and $3.3 billion in new bilateral contributions for subsidy resources to allow continued lending through the PRGT at zero interest rates. Donors will be offered various, flexible mechanisms for providing subsidy resources. This will be complemented by use of IMF internal resources of about $0.7 billion. In the second stage of the strategy, in 2024/25 – by which time current economic uncertainties are expected to have receded – the IMF will decide on the size of the PRGT and associated funding mechanisms for the long term. Use of existing and new SDRs is expected to facilitate the funding effort.

      在擴大融資渠道的同時,IMF還批準了一項分兩階段的融資戰略,以覆蓋疫情相關的貸款費用,確保其優惠貸款援助在財務上的可持續性。在第一階段,IMF的目標是再籌集180億美元的PRGT貸款資源,并尋求33億美元的新增雙邊捐款作為補充資源,以便能繼續通過PRGT以零利率發放貸款。IMF將為捐助方提供各種靈活機制來提供補充資源。此外,IMF還將動用大約7億美元的內部資源,作為對上述安排的補充。在該戰略的第二階段,到2024/2025年(預計屆時經濟形勢將趨于明朗),IMF將確定PRGT的規模以及相關的長期融資機制。使用現有及新增的特別提款權,預計將有助于以上融資舉措。

       

      The IMF continues to step up its response to the unprecedented and persistent needs of low-income countries. The result is greater access to financing and a long-term vision for its concessional lending. It has also opened the door for donors to play their part. The sums required may sound large, but the cost of doing nothing – paid with human lives and livelihoods – will be far larger.

      在響應低收入國家空前且持久的需求方面,IMF將繼續加倍努力。通過這些努力,我們將擴大有關國家的融資渠道,并為IMF的優惠貸款工作提供一個長期的視野。其也為捐助方發揮自身作用敞開了大門。我們需要的融資規模聽起來可能很大,但不作為的代價比這要大得多——尤其這將以人的生命和生計為代價。

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