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      雙語:中國經濟的韌性與巨大潛力
      發布時間:2022年09月20日     發布人: nanyuzi
      來源: 駐伊朗使館
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      字號 簡體 繁體 打印

      China’s Economy Showing Resilience and Potentials amid Headwinds

      中國經濟的韌性與巨大潛力

       

      Chinese ambassador to the Islamic Republic of Iran Chang Hua

      駐伊朗大使常華

       

      29 July 2022

      2022年7月29日

       

      Since the beginning of this year, the increasingly complicated international environment and weakened global economic recovery, as well as sporadic but multiple local outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic caused harsh impacts on China’s economic development. Affected by both domestic and external unfavorable factors, China’s economic performance in the second quarter was less ideal than expected, which has resulted in some negative rhetoric against China’s economy on some media. In this case, I would like to share some views on China’s economy and its prospects:

      今年以來,國際形勢復雜嚴峻,世界經濟增長放緩態勢明顯。中國國內疫情多發散發,也對經濟穩定運行造成了嚴重沖擊。受國內外雙重不利因素影響,中國二季度經濟表現不及預期,部分媒體上出現了唱衰中國經濟的論調。我想針對中國經濟形勢和未來發展前景談幾點看法:

       

      First, China’s economy managed to grow in the second quarter despite downward pressure. In the second quarter of this year, the impacts from a new round of COVID flare-ups and other unexpected factors steeply increased the downward pressure on China’s economy, and major economic indicators tumbled in April. However, the Chinese government responded with resolute and swift actions. We put stable growth higher on the agenda, held ground against a massive stimulus, worked to front-load the policies set, and introduced and implemented a policy package for stabilizing the economy. The effects emerged immediately. In May, the decline in major economic indicators slowed. In June, the economy stabilized and rebounded. Major indicators picked up fairly fast and returned to the positive territory. As a result, the economy registered a positive growth in the second quarter. The gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the first half year was 56,264.2 billion yuan, up by 2.5% year on year at constant prices. In terms of specific economic indicators, industrial production was steadily recovered and the total value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 3.9% year on year in June which is 3.2% higher than in May. The service industry production index also increased from -5.1% to 1.3%. The total retail sales of consumer goods bounced back from -6.7% to 3.1% in June demonstrating market sales improvement and fast growth in retail sales of goods for basic living. Exports went up by 22% which is 6.7% higher than the previous month. By ensuring supply and price stability in the market, focusing on grain and energy production, and overcoming the impacts of imported inflation, the consumer price is also generally stable and the employment improved.

      第一,中國經濟二季度頂住壓力實現正增長。今年二季度,受新一輪疫情等超預期因素沖擊,中國經濟下行壓力陡然加大,4月份主要經濟指標深度下跌。中國政府果斷應對、及時調控,把穩增長放在更加突出的位置,堅持不搞“大水漫灌”,推動原定政策靠前發力,推出和實施穩經濟一攬子政策措施。政策效應較快顯現,5月主要經濟指標跌幅收窄,6月經濟企穩回升,主要指標較快反彈、由負轉正,帶動二季度經濟實現正增長。上半年,中國國內生產總值(GDP)562642億元,按不變價格計算,同比增長2.5。就具體經濟指標而言:企業復工復產有序推進,6月份規模以上工業增加值同比增長3.9%,比上月加快3.2個百分點;服務業生產指數也由上月下降5.1%轉為增長1.3%。消費市場逐漸回暖,6月份社會消費品零售總額由上月下降6.7%轉為增長3.1%;出口增長22%,比上月加快了6.7個百分點。物價形勢總體穩定,通過加大市場保供穩價力度,抓好糧食和能源生產,克服輸入性通脹影響,保障了國內市場價格總體穩定,就業形勢有所好轉。

       

      Second, China’s economy is expected to recover gradually and maintain steady growth. The risk of stagflation in the global economy is on the rise these days, thus raising the concerns of instability and uncertainty in China’s economic growth. However, China’s economy has strong resilience and great potentials and the fundamentals sustaining China’s long-term economic growth remain unchanged. With the implementation of a series of policies and measures to stabilize growth, China’s economic performance is expected to gradually improve. First, a major economy like China always has enormous resilience. We should be aware of the considerably large scale of China’s economy and its advantages for having a solid material foundation and a huge domestic market. Second, the potentials of demand recovery are significant. Chinese government is determined to stabilize investment, accelerate the issuance and use of special-purpose bonds, speed up major projects construction, and encourage infrastructure investment. We expect to see further consumption recovery as the offline consumer services are reviving and the government policies to boost consumption are coming into effect. Moreover, China’s foreign trade sustained great resilience. In May, China’s total import and export volume increased by 9.5% year-on-year, 9.4% higher than the previous month; and 14.3% in June, 4.8% higher than that in May. Third, there is a concrete foundation for production to rebound. Following the steady recovery of production, the industrial and supply chains have been gradually smoothed, and the promoting effects of key industries such as automobiles and electronics will further strengthen. And the service industry turned from a decline to an increase in June as the pandemic situation improved. In addition, the promising recovery of transportation industry will also be of great help for the further production boost. Fourth, innovation will provide new momentum for economic growth. Under the pandemic, traditional industries have accelerated their transition and expansion towards digitization and intelligentization, meanwhile new industries continue to develop steadily and rapidly. Fifth, China’s macro economic policies are consistent and precise. The positive effects of policies such as large-scale tax refunds, issuance and use of special-purpose bonds, and increased financial support for the production will emerge, which will contribute to the steady recovery and growth of the economy.

      第二,中國經濟有望逐步恢復,保持平穩增長。目前全球經濟滯脹風險在上升,中國經濟發展也面臨很多不穩定不確定因素,但是中國經濟韌性強、潛力大,長期向好的基本特點沒有變。隨著一攬子穩增長政策措施落地見效,中國經濟運行有望逐步改善。一是,大國經濟有韌性。中國經濟規模依然可觀,長期積累的雄厚物質基礎和超大市場規模優勢明顯。二是,需求恢復有潛力。穩投資力度持續加大,專項債發行和使用加快,重大項目加快推進,基礎設施投資提速。線下消費場景漸次復蘇,加上促消費政策發力,消費有望繼續恢復。中國外貿進出口具有較強韌性。5月份,中國進出口總額同比增長9.5%,比4月份加快9.4個百分點;6月份,進出口同比增長14.3%,比5月份進一步加快了4.8個百分點。三是,生產回升有支撐。隨著企業復工復產加快推進,產業鏈供應鏈堵點卡點逐步打通,汽車、電子等重點行業帶動作用有望進一步增強。隨著疫情防控形勢趨穩,6月份服務業生產由降轉升。物流運輸逐步暢通,有助于支撐生產進一步恢復。四是,創新發展增動力。在疫情條件下,傳統產業加速向數字化、網絡化、智能化方向延伸拓展,新產業新動能繼續保持平穩較快增長。五是,宏觀政策有保障。下階段,大規模留抵退稅、專項債發行使用、加大金融支持實體經濟力度等政策效應會繼續顯現,有助于推動經濟持續回升、向好發展。

            

      Third, China’s economy has been deeply integrated into the global economy, and opening-up is one of China’s fundamental national policies. China cannot develop in isolation from the world, and the world also needs China for its development. Affected by factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis, the global industrial chain and supply chain are disturbed. As a result, many countries are stuck in multiple crises in terms of food and energy. Rising prices have forced major economies to tighten their economic policies, and pushed the world economy into the substantial risk of stagflation. China, as the largest developing country in the world, has profound developmental potentials and can certainly provide a strong impetus for the global economic recovery. China will deepen high-level opening-up, stay committed to free trade and fair trade, and help keep the two wheels of multilateral and regional trade cooperation running in parallel. Continued efforts will be made to foster a market-oriented, world-class business environment governed by a sound legal framework, and ensure foreign enterprises’ equal access to unlimited sectors in accordance with law in order to realize mutual benefit amid fair competition. China is ready to strengthen international cooperation against COVID-19 and willing to make its COVID control measures more targeted and well-calibrated under the premise of ensuring safety against the pandemic. We will steadily optimize the visa issuance and COVID testing policies and keep resuming and increasing international passenger flights in an orderly manner, and prudently advance overseas commerce and cross-border travel for labor services, so as to better promote personnel exchanges and China’s cooperation with the world.

      第三,中國經濟深度融入世界,對外開放是中國基本國策。中國的發展離不開世界,世界的發展也需要中國。當前受新冠疫情、烏克蘭危機等因素影響,全球產業鏈供應鏈紊亂有加劇態勢,多國面臨糧食和能源等多重危機,物價上漲推動主要經濟體政策趨向收緊,世界經濟面臨較大滯脹風險。中國作為世界最大發展中國家,發展潛力巨大,可以為世界經濟復蘇提供強勁動力。中國將深化高水平對外開放,堅持自由貿易、公平貿易,推動多邊和區域貿易合作兩個“輪子”一起轉。持續打造市場化、法治化、國際化營商環境,保障外企依法平等進入開放領域,在公平競爭中實現互利共贏。中國愿加強國際抗疫合作,將在確保防疫安全前提下實現更加精準科學防控,持續優化簽證、檢測等防控政策,進一步有序恢復和增加國際客運航班,穩妥有序推動出境商貿和跨境務工活動,更好促進中外人員往來和對外交流合作。

       

      In the first half of this year, the bilateral trade between China and Iran increased dramatically, consolidating China’s position as the top trading partner of Iran. We are sure that the steady recovery and growth of China’s economy will provide more opportunities for countries around the world including Iran. In the second half of this year, China will hold a number of exhibitions like the 7th China-Eurasia Expo, the 22nd China International Fair of Investment and Trade, the 132nd Canton Fair, and the 5th China International Import Expo which are great chances for Iranian merchants to learn more about China’s market and conduct cooperation with China. China will actively implement the Global Development Initiative and all countries around the world, including Iran, are welcome to benefit from China’s economic development, promote high-quality Belt and Road cooperation through greater openness and cooperation in trade, investment and other fields. In this way, we will be able to collectively build a community with a shared future for mankind.

      今年上半年,中伊雙邊貿易額大幅增長,中國繼續保持伊朗第一大貿易伙伴地位。中國經濟持續穩定恢復、穩中向好,將為包括伊朗在內的世界各國提供更多發展機遇。今年下半年,中國將舉辦第七屆中國-亞歐博覽會、第二十二屆投洽會、第一百三十二屆廣交會、第五屆進博會等系列經貿展會,將為伊朗各界提供更多了解中國的窗口以及與中國開展經貿合作的機會。中國積極推進全球發展倡議,歡迎世界各國積極利用中國發展紅利,通過不斷擴大在貿易、投資、產業等各領域的相互開放與合作,推進高質量共建“一帶一路”,助力世界經濟復蘇與發展。

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